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Poor Non-Farm Payroll Results

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Introduction: This morning on March 8th, 2019 at 8:30 am EST the United States reported NFP (non farm payroll) results. These results came in at 20k jobs added for the month of February versus the expected increase of 180k, a 160k drop from expected. Check out the news releases here.

Dollar Index 1 Hour

Today on the dollar the index, we saw NFP directly impact the dollar in a negative manner, pushing the DXY as far down as .17% (which occurred within 30 minutes of the news release). Overall, we see the dollar index is only down .24% on the day (of which most occurred prior to the news) and is showing strength to the bullish side. A key thing to note on this is that the DXY had an extremely large bullish push yesterday and going into today we saw a very weak pull back, despite negative news. With that, it could show that the market is not as worried about the news and the data suggested, as the average NFP results over the last 3 months (including this) are still over 184k.

USD/JPY 1 Hour

Looking at USD/JPY the market traded similarly to how the DXY did, as we saw a very weak overall reaction to the negative NFP news. In fact, the market is trading higher than pre-news pricing, giving us an understanding that market participants did not react too negatively to the news as such a large miss would expect.

Conclusion: Overall, the market did not react nearly as volatile as most would have expected with such a large news miss. This could likely be due to the fact that millions of retail traders have been shorting after the news and large market participants have pulled the markets up before pushing us down next week. The major USD news events to look out for next week include: retail sales, Fed Powell’s speech, CPI, capital good orders, and CSI.